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Brazil Decides 2026

Runoff · Oct 25
  • EWZ
    NYSE Arca
    $42.51
    ▼ -1.00%
  • PBR
    NYSE
    $25.66
    ▼ -0.16%
  • VALE
    NYSE
    $12.70
    ▼ -2.42%
  • ITUB
    NYSE
    $9.70
    0.00%
  • BBD
    NYSE
    $4.05
    ▼ -0.86%
  • NU
    NYSE
    $15.05
    ▼ -0.27%
  • SBS
    NYSE
    $6.32
    ▼ -1.25%
  • PETR4
    B3
    R$57.75
    ▼ -0.79%
  • VALE3
    B3
    R$64.03
    ▼ -2.15%
  • ITUB4
    B3
    R$48.90
    ▲ +0.20%
  • BBDC4
    B3
    R$20.65
    ▼ -0.15%
  • BBAS3
    B3
    R$24.10
    ▼ -0.41%

Source: BRZ News market data · Delayed quotes · as of Oct 22, 2026, 1:26 AM BRT

Investable · NYSE ADRs and B3

Brazil stocks & ADRs in focus

Educational market data, not investment advice. BRZ is not a broker.

Source: BRZ News market data · Delayed quotes · as of Oct 22, 2026, 1:26 AM BRT

BRZ News · linked stories

BRZ news on these companies and the vote

  1. Meta faces Brazil election-meddling lawsuit as Lula demands equal treatmentElection

Source: BRZ News newsroom · Brasília time (BRT); page loaded Oct 22, 2026, 1:26 AM BRT

Official TSE · President

Top candidate by state

First round · Oct 4
Brazil presidential vote by state

Hover, focus or tap a state.

  • PT
  • PL
  • Other party
  • No data
State table (27 of 27 states with data)
StateTop candidatePartyValid %Votes2nd place
Acre ACFlavio BolsonaroPL64.56%302,807Lula (PT) 28.73%
Alagoas ALLulaPT54.73%995,459Flavio Bolsonaro (PL) 40.45%
Amapá APLulaPT45.71%212,503Flavio Bolsonaro (PL) 45.67%
Amazonas AMLulaPT48.23%1,046,996Flavio Bolsonaro (PL) 45.00%
Bahia BALulaPT66.17%5,664,771Flavio Bolsonaro (PL) 28.53%
Ceará CELulaPT63.29%3,555,263Flavio Bolsonaro (PL) 31.27%
Distrito Federal DFFlavio BolsonaroPL51.31%909,616Lula (PT) 38.11%
Espírito Santo ESFlavio BolsonaroPL54.78%1,233,194Lula (PT) 37.76%
Goiás GOFlavio BolsonaroPL53.60%2,051,888Lula (PT) 31.06%
Maranhão MALulaPT63.99%2,566,301Flavio Bolsonaro (PL) 30.90%
Mato Grosso MTFlavio BolsonaroPL65.15%1,298,581Lula (PT) 29.18%
Mato Grosso do Sul MSFlavio BolsonaroPL58.60%873,351Lula (PT) 34.68%
Minas Gerais MGFlavio BolsonaroPL48.24%5,777,548Lula (PT) 43.33%
Pará PALulaPT49.91%2,427,237Flavio Bolsonaro (PL) 44.50%
Paraíba PBLulaPT61.31%1,541,127Flavio Bolsonaro (PL) 33.07%
Paraná PRFlavio BolsonaroPL59.91%3,945,345Lula (PT) 31.20%
Pernambuco PELulaPT63.45%3,553,971Flavio Bolsonaro (PL) 31.03%
Piauí PILulaPT70.99%1,523,710Flavio Bolsonaro (PL) 24.09%
Rio de Janeiro RJFlavio BolsonaroPL53.01%4,966,844Lula (PT) 39.41%
Rio Grande do Norte RNLulaPT59.75%1,237,963Flavio Bolsonaro (PL) 34.77%
Rio Grande do Sul RSFlavio BolsonaroPL55.64%3,573,783Lula (PT) 35.73%
Rondônia ROFlavio BolsonaroPL67.45%652,988Lula (PT) 25.89%
Roraima RRFlavio BolsonaroPL71.06%231,322Lula (PT) 22.86%
Santa Catarina SCFlavio BolsonaroPL66.65%3,000,020Lula (PT) 25.04%
São Paulo SPFlavio BolsonaroPL51.93%12,922,023Lula (PT) 38.20%
Sergipe SELulaPT62.75%856,019Flavio Bolsonaro (PL) 30.63%
Tocantins TOFlavio BolsonaroPL50.44%469,321Lula (PT) 43.42%

Prediction markets · betting pool

Who will win Brazil’s presidency?

Not polls · not TSE counts

Polymarket

Available

Brazil Presidential Election

Volume
$191.3M
24h volume
$1.42M
Liquidity
$1.38M
Open interest
$11.31M
  1. Flávio Bolsonaro78.7%

    Yes bid / ask: 78.6% / 78.8%

  2. Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva21.5%

    Yes bid / ask: 21.0% / 22.0%

Contract terms

Candidate who wins Brazil’s 2026 presidential election, including the runoff. Settles by consensus of credible reporting, with official TSE results used if ambiguous. Resolves to Other if the result is unknown by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.

Price basis: Provider Yes outcome price; bid, ask and last trade are separate quotes. Candidate prices are not normalized.. Provider prices may update at different times.

Contract definition ↗
View market at Polymarket ↗

Source: Polymarket public API

Source metadata updated: Oct 22, 2026, 1:18 AM BRT

Kalshi

Unavailable

No verified presidential winner market is available from this source right now.

Source: Kalshi public API

Checked: Oct 22, 2026, 1:26 AM BRT

Checked: Oct 22, 2026, 1:26 AM BRT Settlement definitions differ; prices are not normalized or combined.

BRZ.PUBLISH / LIVE ELECTION HUD

Presidential runoff

Official TSE · Runoff

Awaiting official vote count
Awaiting first check

Sections counted

0.00%

Turnout

0.00%

Valid / blank / null

0 / 0 / 0

Top-two gap: 0 votes · partial count; this lead may change

#13 · PT

Lula

0.00%
0 votesOfficial tally

#22 · PL

Flavio Bolsonaro

0.00%
0 votesOfficial tally

Source: TSE · Page loaded Oct 22, 2026, 1:26 AM BRT; the count refreshes every 20 s while this tab is visible

Choose your broker

Where you can trade Brazil from your country, and what each broker offers.

Tell us where you live to see the brokers that open accounts there.

BRZ News is a US media company, not a broker or investment adviser. This list is not a recommendation to open an account or to buy or sell any security, and it is in alphabetical order. Links go to each broker's own site; BRZ News is not paid for them unless a card says "Paid partner link". Facts checked on each broker's site on 2026-10-02. Investing involves risk of loss.

Price history · Brazilian tickers into the runoff

Markets into the runoff

Four Brazilian tickers already in your brokerage app

In dollars, on the NYSE. The move is measured from the last close before the Oct 4 first round; the line is the last month.

EWZ

iShares MSCI Brazil ETF

Price history is temporarily unavailable.

The whole market in one ticker, on NYSE Arca.

PBR

Petrobras

Price history is temporarily unavailable.

State-controlled oil major; pricing policy is an election issue.

ITUB

Itaú Unibanco

Price history is temporarily unavailable.

Largest private bank; moves with rates and country risk.

NU

Nu Holdings

Price history is temporarily unavailable.

Digital bank with 139 million customers; a rates and credit story.

Source: brapi.dev, delayed quotes; closing and hourly prices, dividends not included. Educational information, not a recommendation. Past performance is not a forecast.

Source: brapi.dev (delayed quotes) · Page checked Oct 22, 2026, 1:26 AM BRT

BRZ News TV
BRZ News TV

The Morning After — Petrobras, Brazil’s Election and the "Brazil Risk" | BRZ News

Channel on YouTube ↗
Methodology & sources

This edition focuses on the presidential runoff on October 25. The TSE’s finalized first round determines qualification; eliminated candidates and first-round vote totals are excluded from the current runoff view. The runoff tally appears only after the TSE publishes its verified second-round file. Source timestamps use Brasília time; the last check records when this screen consulted the feed.

State map: each state shows the candidate with the most valid votes in the TSE’s presidential file for that state (election 6257, first round, October 4). The party is the one the TSE publishes for that candidate: PT red, PL blue, any other party grey. A state without a verified file or counted votes shows “No data”. In the runoff, a state under 95% of sections counted (and without the TSE’s final flag) is drawn lighter with a dashed outline and labeled “Counting…”, with its percent counted; the map refreshes every 30 s while the tab is visible and never goes back to the first round once the runoff has started. The map changes to the runoff only when the TSE’s second-round file (election 6258) for a state is verified and has counted votes.

Prediction markets: odds are each provider’s Yes price for its own winner contract; prices are not polls, are not normalized across providers and settle under each provider’s own rules. Volume, liquidity and open interest are shown only as the provider publishes them (Polymarket in US dollars, Kalshi in contracts); “—” means the provider does not publish it.

Stocks: the company list is an editorial selection of listed Brazilian companies and the EWZ ETF. Quotes come from BRZ News market data and are delayed; the time shown is when the market-data service last responded, kept with the data. The quotes do not update live on this page. “—” means no quote. Sectors are descriptive labels. “Latest BRZ story” is the most recent BRZ headline that names the ticker or company, and the news list shows politics, markets and currency stories that name a listed company or the election, at most eight. Market data is informational; BRZ News is not a broker or investment adviser.

During counting, the dashboard checks for updates every 20 seconds while visible. If the connection fails, the last available result stays on screen with a delay notice. Candidate status comes from the TSE.

Official TSE source ↗

BRZ.PUBLISH is free election coverage by BRZ News. Election data: Tribunal Superior Eleitoral. Video: BRZ News TV on YouTube.